Abstract: The current method of determining critical drop height has some defects as that the precision was bad and the confidence level was low.To resolve these problems, a formula of determining safety impact strength with high confidence and high reliability was given The formula could make full use of the current test data and the test data that accumulated before.By which,a more precise result could be got and the expenditure and time of test were reduced The contrasting analysis of Monte Carlo simulation showed that the formula could not only determining safety impact strength with small samples but also the confidence level of the result was very high An example was give at the end of this paper

Key words: Propellant mechanuical sensitivity;Impact strength;Explosion proof test;Statistical analysis;Monte Carlo method

摘要： 针对现有的临界落高测定方法存在的估计精度差、可信程度低的缺点， 建立了高置信度、高可靠度的安全撞击强度公式。该公式可以综合利用当前试验数据和以往积累的试验数据确定安全撞击强度， 从而既提高了估计精度又减少了试验费用。大量Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 仿真分析表明，该式不仅可以在小样本条件下确定安全撞击强度， 而且置信度高。最后给出了一个具体应用的实例

关键词: 推进剂;机械感度;冲击强度;防爆试验;统计分析;蒙特卡罗法