Abstract: To accurately design the disk and blade-tip clearance of high pressure turbine, turbine disk radial deformation was analyzed from a probabilistic perspective. Extremum Response Surface Method (ERSM) with high efficiency and high precision was introduced and the mathematical model of ERSM was established for nonlinear dynamic probabilistic analysis. Fully considering the nonlinearity of material and boundary conditions, the dynamic of heat loads and rotor speeds and enough random parameters, the dynamic probabilistic analysis of turbine disk radical deformation was completed by using the ERSM. The distribution characteristics of input-output variables and important factors on the radial deformation were gained. Through the comparison of methods, the results show that the ERSM can greatly reduce the computing time and improve the computational efficiency while keeping the acceptable calculation precision, and it is a feasible and perfect method in the nonlinear dynamic probabilistic analysis. It is obvious that ERSM will provide a promising way to design and optimize turbine disk and blade-tip clearance more effectively in future. 

Key words: Turbine disk; Radial deformation; Extremum response surface method; Dynamic; Probabilistic analysis; Sensitivity analysis

摘要： 为了准确设计高压涡轮盘和叶尖间隙,从概率的角度进行了涡轮盘径向变形的分析。介绍了高精度高效率的非线性动态概率分析的极值响应面方法(Extremum Response Surface Method, ERSM),并建立了其数学模型。考虑材料属性和边界条件的非线性,以及热载荷和离心载荷的动态性,基于ERSM对涡轮盘径向变形进行了非线性动态概率分析,得到了输入输出参数的分布特征和影响涡轮盘径向动态变形的主要因素。最后,通过方法比较,验证了ERSM在保证计算精度的前提下能大大提高计算速度,节约计算时间,改善计算效率。为进行更有效的涡轮盘设计和优化,改善叶尖间隙设计和控制的合理性提供了有效依据。 

关键词: 涡轮盘;径向变形;极值响应面法;动态性;概率分析;灵敏度分析 